Kris Osborn at Warrior Maven has written an article spelling out the framing of a PLA invasion of Taiwan and the possibility of a counter-attack if we should lose in the early stages. The key points are:
- The Best Defense is a Forward Defense: the US and allies need to have as much air and sea power up front in the theatre as possible.
- One of our best advantages is the US Navy’s attack submarine fleet.
- A lot of this hinges on Taiwan’s own ability to defend itself. While the basic manpower is there, Taiwan needs to make sure their standing forces have what it takes to make a firm defense of the island while being outnumbered.
- Should we lose and Taiwan gets overrun by the PLA, any ability to take it back hinges on control of the seas as all possible reinforcements need to sail to get there with enough forces to land and engage the PLA.
That last point is a tall order but theoretically possible if it’s not just the US. The author suggests Japan, Australia, South Korea (?!), and other powers might pitch in if circumstances allow. This is all the more incentive for China to play the deep game on the battlespace, as their interest in the Central Pacific island chains would certainly disrupt this.
Taiwan Conflict Research Page 
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