Author: dukeofyashima
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Is China preparing their economy for war?
https://www.csis.org/analysis/economic-indicators-chinese-military-action-against-taiwan The Center for Strategic & International Studies takes a look at recent Chinese economic and trade initiatives and wonders if they’re shaping their national economy to be insulated, or at least less affected, by an upcoming war. Recent actions include: Decoupling from the US economy, including getting off the US dollar and working around…
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One Child, One Soldier: China’s weakness in its reliance on conscription.
The article is worth reading, the summary is that the PLA depends on 2-year conscripts for about 40% of its force, and most of its infantry. While China still has a large population and can be picky about who it drafts, the army creates friction between the military’s expanding need for manpower and the economy’s…
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In defending Taiwan Americans are OK with arms, not so much with Troops.
The Chicago Council’s poll shows other two interesting points. One is that support for Taiwan’s defense (not necessarily it’s independence) is pretty equal among identified Republicans, Democrats, and Others. Taiwan is perhaps the one issue that’s truly achieved a bi-partisan consensus in current American politics. The other is that support for a military intervention is…
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China’s One Child, One Soldier Policy
https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/red-army-private-ryans-what-wargaming-says-about-chinese-willingness-strike-first-and-stay Small Wars Journal points out that any conflict between the US and China will not be a limited one, it will be total war when it comes. While the US has recently sought out to place limits on its conflict, China’s limits are within its demographics. With a one (or more recent two) child…
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Invasion or Coersion?
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/08/10/the-big-taiwan-question-as-china-issues-warnings-and-holds-military-drills-is-a-chinese-invasion-imminent/ Grid runs an analysis of CCP motivations and methods for taking over Taiwan. While an all-out invasion is now definitely on the table, a perhaps more likely option for China is a campaogn of Coersion enforced by impacting Taiwan’s trade through a blockade. As Taiwan is highly dependent on maritime commerce, the CCP considered…
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The PLANMC – China’s Marine Corps
While the PLANMC is still building up to full strength, they have unique capabilities and deployment experience extending all the way to Africa. As the article explains, the six PLANMC brigades are complimented by six Army amphibious trained brigades specifically trained for the Taiwan campaign. Any operations against Taiwan would see both forces working in…
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If we lose Taiwan, could we get it back?
Kris Osborn at Warrior Maven has written an article spelling out the framing of a PLA invasion of Taiwan and the possibility of a counter-attack if we should lose in the early stages. The key points are: The Best Defense is a Forward Defense: the US and allies need to have as much air and…
Taiwan Conflict Research Page 